JD Vance makes a Midwest-heavy, generational pitch: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the a special edition From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

Tonight, Henry J. Gomez and Matt Dixon report from the convention hall on how JD Vance introduced himself to a national audience with his vice presidential nomination acceptance speech. Plus, chief political analyst Chuck Todd examines whether the convention can help Republicans win back Wisconsin.

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Vance calls for a ‘big tent’ GOP in VP nominee acceptance speech

By Henry J. Gomez and Matt Dixon

MILWAUKEE — Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, a right-wing populist known for his unbending opinions, introduced himself Wednesday as a vice presidential candidate open to compromise and eager for unity but unapologetically drawn to hot-button debates.

“We have a big tent in this party, on everything from national security to economic policy,” Vance told Republican National Convention delegates as he accepted their nomination to be Donald Trump’s running mate. “But my message to you, my fellow Republicans, is: We love this country, and we are united to win. And our disagreements actually make us stronger.” 

Vance, 39, made the case for himself in generational terms, at one point recalling that he was in the fourth grade when Joe Biden, then a senator, voted for a North American Free Trade Agreement that would disillusion many working-class voters. He made the case for Trump by casting him as a resilient figure in the face of criminal charges and, more recently, an assassination attempt that left him with a wounded right ear. 

“They accused him of being a tyrant,” Vance said of Trump. “They accused him of being a tyrant. They said he must be stopped at all costs. But how did he respond? He called for national unity, for national calm, literally right after an assassin nearly took his life. He remembered the victims of the terrible attack, especially the brave Corey Comperatore, who gave his life to protect his family. … And then President Trump flew to Milwaukee and got back to work.”

Most pointedly, Vance offered himself as the campaign’s tip of the spear in the industrial heartland — states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that the GOP hopes to pry away from Biden and the Democrats this fall. He mentioned all three states repeatedly.

“This moment is not about me,” Vance said. “It’s about the autoworker in Michigan, wondering why out-of-touch politicians are destroying their jobs. It’s about the factory worker in Wisconsin, who makes things with their hands and is proud of American craftsmanship. It’s about the energy worker in Pennsylvania and Ohio, who doesn’t understand why Joe Biden is willing to buy energy from tinpot dictators across the world when he can buy it from his own citizens, right here in his own country.” 

Read more from Henry and Matt →

More from the GOP convention:

NBC News’ Matt Dixon and Vaughn Hillyard report that for many attendees, Trump’s call after the attempt on his life to “stand united” means one main thing: coming together around him to beat Biden. Read more →

Trump White House trade adviser Peter Navarro received thunderous cheers at the convention tonight, hours after he left a federal prison in Miami, NBC News’ Allan Smith writes. Navarro was convicted of contempt of Congress after he defied a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 committee. Read more →

Can the convention help Republicans carry Wisconsin?

By Chuck Todd

MILWAUKEE — Despite Republicans’ growing confidence about their chances of not just winning the White House but also securing both chambers of Congress, let’s not forget the reason Republicans chose Milwaukee as their convention city in the first place.

No matter how well Trump does in the Sun Belt swing states — Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina — he will still need to win one of the three key Northern swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin — to get to 270 electoral votes.

And it’s that necessity that made Milwaukee an enticing location for the GOP’s convention. Now, a little reality check: There’s not a lot of data to support the idea that a convention host city on its own can swing a state. Many times, parties pick convention cities for reasons outside Electoral College politics. Chicago hosts a lot simply because of its central location. New York and Philadelphia have hosted a lot of conventions, also because of their centrality to Washington and the political classes in both D.C. and NYC. 

The last four times Republicans have won the presidency, their nominee carried the convention host state just twice. Trump carried Ohio in 2016 (Cleveland was the host city), but George W. Bush lost both Pennsylvania and New York after conventions in Philadelphia and New York City. His father, in 1988, won the presidency in an Electoral College landslide that included Louisiana after New Orleans hosted his convention. 

The Democrats have had a slightly better track record, carrying their convention host states four of the last five times their party has won the White House (that counts 2020 and the virtual convention originally scheduled to be in Milwaukee). Bill Clinton carried both of his convention host states (New York in 1992 and Illinois in 1996); Barack Obama won Colorado in 2008 but lost North Carolina in 2012. And then Biden carried Wisconsin narrowly in 2020.

The question remains: Will this convention help Republicans carry Wisconsin?

Here’s the truth: The GOP needs a little help if it’s going to win Wisconsin. Of the three Northern swing states, Wisconsin is the battleground where Republicans have the least confidence and where they appear to be struggling more.

Read more from Chuck →

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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